Samuel Benavides, US Coast Guard; Dr. Thomas A. Mazzuchi and Dr. Shahram Sarkani, P.E., The George Washington University
As commercial and military aircraft fleets age the time-dependent effects of corrosion threaten their structure. Traditional predictive algorithms for determining the remaining structural life of aging aircraft are based on corrosion modeling. The multifarious variables involved in these models have proven convoluted, complex and interacting for the development of precise time-to-failure algorithms. An advance statistical method to analyze the probability of failure should account for the disparate confounding variables that influence corrosion. This paper introduced the novel use of survival analysis techniques to investigate the time-to-failure of airframe structure on aging aircraft. The objective of this work is to develop corrosion-specific failure rate functions, also known as survival or hazardous functions, for the Coast Guard's fleet of search-and-rescue HH-65 helicopters assigned to environmentally severe geographic locations. Exploring the influence of historical maintenance data, this work is determining how confounding and interacting variables are impacting the corrosion failure rate. This effort is improving the understanding of aging aircraft corrosion failure while demonstrating the successful broadening of survival analysis to corrosion engineering.
Keywords: survival analysis, aging aircraft, modeling, structural failure, censored data